Donald Trump or Joe Biden as US President? Both candidates confident of win
American investors are increasingly confident in Biden’s election victory
The debate between Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, marred by postponements and constant mutual insults, did little for the electorate. However, it was enough to win Wall Street over to Biden’s side..
A face-to-face meeting of candidates at the end of September led to a leap in leadership Joe Biden over Donald Trump in several national surveys.
«The second discussion (which may or may not take place at all) is crucial for the incumbent, but not particularly important for Biden.. He is already ready for the elections», – said Jamie Cox, Managing Partner, Harris Financial Group.
The Democratic candidate leads by 10 points among potential voters. Outcomes debates strengthened its position by 1-2 points.
Despite skepticism about opinion polls following Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, investors are even more convinced that Biden will win a clear victory..
«We have no doubt that Biden and the Democratic Party will win. If any doubts remained earlier, then the past debates completely dispelled them.», – said John Briggs, Head of Strategy Department, NatWest Markets.
Shares in renewable energy companies, which analysts predict a period of prosperity due to the political agenda of the Biden administration, surged after the debate.
In foreign exchange markets, post-election volatility bets are declining, indicating that investors are looking forward to a landslide victory for a Democrat.
«I want to see how Trump performs in the next debate. It may seem like Biden is in the lead, but I don’t trust opinion polls.», – said Akira Takei, Global Fixed Income Fund Manager at Asset Management One in Tokyo.
Biden’s win is far from guaranteed and many investors continue to hedge their bets. For example, the expansion of the Democratic nominee’s leadership has done little to allay expectations of post-election stock options volatility, which continues to anticipate market volatility for the rest of the year..
Investors also do not exclude a possible change in mood in the election race. Robert Phipps, Director of Per Stirling Capital Management, holds about a fifth of its portfolio in cash.
A basket of stocks tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co, which includes «green technologies» and trade-related companies likely to benefit from democratic politics triumphs outnumbered the basket of organizations potentially hit by the Biden presidency by about 10% between early September and today.
The growing likelihood of a democratic «capture» The White House also had a positive impact on US Treasury bonds by winning the presidential election and controlling the Senate..
The yield on the underlying 10-year bonds could rise to 1.25% with a Biden win, up from its current level of about 0.75%, analysts say..